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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 819 – 2020 Buyback Players

06/18/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

  • Latest Proposal

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Workshop: Pitcher Injury Factors

Projecting pitcher injuries and their effect seems like the Holy Grail for fantasy analysis. From years of research on the subject, I find it’s just a frustration filled enterprise with no firm resolution. Until a start to the 2020 season has been agreed upon (or I eventually find an acceptable answer), I plan to continuously grind for a workable understanding of pitcher injuries.

First, this article will be a work in progress as I try to find answers to various questions. I can’t fill the RotoGraphs article list with a new article every time I make a change or add more information (Ed. note: Sure you can, Jeff, we’ll post all of ’em!). Every few days or so, I’ll summarize the findings from the previous article’s work and keep moving forward. The series will come to an abrupt end if the framework exists for a start to the season since other analysis will then take priority.
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2020 Prospect Opportunities — Marlins

Today, we continue along in the National League East division with the Marlins. Naturally, the team that finished with the worst record in the NL last season has got a lot of potential holes. Luckily for some of the expected starters normally at risk of losing their jobs, there are no viable prospect alternatives to steal playing time. Any lose playing time is likely to be sopped up by veteran hitters on their bench. Players at risk of poor play and lost playing time without the threat of a prospect behind them is Jorge Alfaro and Jesus Aguilar.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 17th, 2020

Transcript is below!

1:24

Paul Sporer: Helloooo! What is going on, y’all? Let’s talk some baseball

1:25

Bauer Outage: With the 2020 season very much in question, how would you feel moving Verlander for Bauer in a keeper league? I kind of feel like the loss of a season eats away at alot of the value of guys in their upper 30’s.

1:26

Paul Sporer: I understand it. I’m not the biggest Bauer fan, but the point about missing a season from Verlander and knowing that it can really just go away at any moment for a late-30s pitcher, I totally get it

1:26

Chris: So a 50 game season huh? In a points head to head league would you just play a table with no playoffs?

1:28

Paul Sporer: That’d probably be smartest, but the playoffs are the main reason H2H players like the format so I’m not sure they’re gonna want to do that. It’s just such an f’n mess.

1:31

Bart G: are top tier starters and closers devalued in a more compressed schedule / season… or even more valued? Thanks

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2020 Prospect Opportunities — Braves

Today, we finally move on to the National League, beginning with the East division and the Braves. As a reminder, the series was intended to only list and discuss prospects who have a chance of earning significant playing time this year only. Obviously, this assumes a 2020 season. That means that there are going to be top prospects missing because they have only completed A-ball and have no chance of appearing in the Majors this season.

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Jeff Zimmerman Fantasy Baseball Chat

3:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for the delay, I had to move my sprinklers.

3:03
Andrew: Are platoon splits statistically significant? How sticky are they from year to year and how soon do they stabilize? It just does not seam right that a guy like Joc Pederson who smashes righties somehow can’t hit lefties, or that Jordan Luplow kills lefties but can’t touch righties. Seems like if a guy can hit a pitcher from one side, given enough chances, he would produce similar stats vs. the other side. Thanks

3:04
Jeff Zimmerman: They are sticky and the exact MLB details are in The Book.

3:04
Jeff Zimmerman: That said, I think teams can make the call earlier for a couple reasons.

3:04
Jeff Zimmerman: They have the minor league stats (not used in The Book).

3:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Also, they have scouts and coaches who can see any possible progress.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 818 – Draft Review ft. Eric Longenhagen

06/16/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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DRAFT REVIEW

  • How likely is Spencer Torkelson to debut at 3B?
  • You had Heston Kjerstad as a potential Balt. pick, how much of a “reach” was it?
    • Did they maximize the deal w/their other picks? (Westburg, Haskin)
  • What’s Nick Gonzales’s offensive outlook in PIT?
  • His whole profile made him a potential 1.1, but what kind of fantasy profile did TOR get w/Austin Martin?
  • Best fantasy future of the 3 Ps taken early: Max Meyer, Asa Lacy, Emerson Hancock

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2020 Prospect Opportunities — Rangers

Today, we complete the American League West teams in our 2020 Prospect Opportunities series, and also the entire American League, as we finish with the Rangers. In addition to questions about its offense, we can’t be sure how the team’s new park is going to play. Early speculation is it’s going to be much friendlier for pitchers than it had been, but by how much?

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Finding an Edge with a 48-Game Season

First off I hate that the season could be so short and it’s total B.S. that the players and owners are still negotiating a season. They should have started once the season was shutdown.

Also, I can understand if an owner or league just wants to sit out this season. This is especially true since other sports who have their sh…stuff together will be playing meaningful games soon.

With those two caveats out of the way, I am interested to see how a short season plays out since none of us have a playbook for it. The owners’ 48-game schedule is even more intriguing if Manfred decides to immediately implement it. The major impact for fantasy owners will be the games per week pending on where he sets the season start date. Here is how those 48-games could get divided up.

Games per Week with 48-Game Plan
Week in Season Games per Week
8 6.0
9 5.3
10 4.8
11 (one month from now) 4.4

If it’s six games a week, that doesn’t change many player valuations. Anything less than that, it gets interesting. With around 5 or fewer games per week, everything will have a playoff feel. Aces will be thrown at every opportunity and suspect starters will have shorter leashes, if they’re starting at all.

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2020 Prospect Opportunities — Mariners

Today, we continue through the American League West teams in our 2020 Prospect Opportunities series, as we move onto the Mariners. Man, what an opportunity-laden team. Nearly every position is filled with a starter at risk of losing his job. Luckily, the majority of these expected starters do have some fantasy intrigue, so they shouldn’t actually be ignored.

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