Tweet of the weekend from the brilliant minds at Rotowear:

Fixed. pic.twitter.com/yKoSDSKc97

— Kenneth Cashman (@kenneth_cashman) August 9, 2019

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Earlier this season, I introduced a new pitcher metric – Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI). It is a way to aggregate the six possible plate discipline outcomes into one simple quantity. By using plate discipline data alone, wPDI highlights the percentage of deceptive/effective pitches thrown.

Some lesser known undervalued pitchers who were revealed by wPDI in 2018 included Domingo German, Marco Gonzales, Will Smith and Ryan Pressly. Of course, wPDI also confirmed stars such as Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Aroldis Chapman.

You can find the definitions and indexes of wPDI in its introductory article, found here.

Here is a quick reminder on what the six possible plate discipline outcomes look like:

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Today, we’re heading back to the 2018 draft to unearth some hidden gems. You’ve all likely heard about Casey Mize, and Alec Bohm, and Nolan Gorman… but who are some of the other prospects who will soon become dynasty darlings?

Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays
Baseball America (org ranking): 11
MLB Pipeline: 10
Marc Hulet: 4

McClanahan deserves more love. As you can see above, most publications have him around the fringe of the Rays’ Top 10 prospects list. And I get it. He was a top college player — selected 31st overall — but opened his first full season in Low-A ball, which is not the most challenging level given his past pedigree. However, there were big concerns over his ability to throw consistent strikes and, well, this is the Rays — an organization that is always on the conservative side of developing prospects not named Wander Franco. And the concern was warranted, as seen by McClanahan’s walk rate of 5.26 BB/9 in 11 appearances. After showing improvements, he was promoted to High-A ball where he was outstanding at working the strike zone. He walked just eight batters in 49.1 innings, which works out to a sparkling 1.46 BB/9 rate. The hard-throwing lefty didn’t miss quite as many bats with his new approach but it was still far better than average (from 12.57 to 10.76 K/9). McClanahan was so impressive in those nine games that he earned another promotion — this time to Double-A. In his one start to date, he posted a K-BB of 8-1 with just two hits allows in five innings. With a blazing fastball, excellent curveball, strong frame, and a tendency to induce ground-ball outs, McClanahan has all but shaken off the concerns that he may eventually end up in the bullpen.

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With Steve Cishek going on the 10-day IL with hip inflammation on Saturday, the Cubs are without four of the relievers in the back end of their bullpen. Kyle Ryan has been on the bereavement list since Friday, and Craig Kimbrel (knee) and Brandon Kintzler (pectoral) are both on the IL. However both Kimbrel and Kintzler could be back by this weekend.

In the meantime, who’s left to get saves? Pedro Strop, who served in the role before the Kimbrel came on board, pitched a scoreless ninth inning against the Reds with a 6-3 lead on Sunday, picking up his 10th save. David Phelps, who recorded the Cubs’ previous save on Aug. 5, got the win in this contest, as his 1-2-3 bottom of the sixth inning preceded Kris Bryant’s go-ahead three-run homer in the top of the seventh. Sandwiched in between Phelps and Strop was Rowan Wick, who got his second hold as a result of pitching two scoreless innings. It would seem that any of the three could collect saves this week, as well as Ryan, who will be eligible to return on Monday.
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This is one of the foulest-looking eight-game slates I’ve ever seen.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Infinity Percent

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I often talk about a hitter’s batted ball type distribution, which simply refers to his rates of grounders, fly balls, line drives, and pop-ups. While these rates do fluctuate like any other metric, they generally remain stable and don’t vary significantly from year to year. A fly ball hitter is typically always one, as is a ground ball hitter. So when we do observe dramatic swings in batted ball type rates, we should take notice, as it’s more likely a conscious change in approach then randomness, assuming the sample size is reasonable. So let’s take a look at the hitters whose fly ball rates have spiked most over the last 30 days compared to the rest of the season. An increased fly ball rate will result in more homers, assuming all else remains equal.

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• We mentioned earlier that the Mets bullpen usage might change moving forward and that seems to be the case. Last night Seth Lugo entered in the 8th inning and instead of handing the ball off to Edwin Diaz for the save in the 9th, finished the game himself. We have this as a committee with Lugo and Diaz and it will stay that way with Lugo ahead. Lugo gave up a solo homer which ended an impressive hot streak for him but he’s still their best reliever at the moment and should see more saves than Diaz for the time being. It might not take long for Diaz to find a groove and reclaim the role but for now it’s hard to expect Diaz to have a higher save total moving forward.  I would expect Diaz to enter next year as the closer but there is a long time between now and March.

• A day after being named closer, Mark Melancon gave up a four spot for the Braves while recording just one out and the Braves bullpen situation remains a bit of an issue. Shane Greene blew the lead in extra innings and Chris Martin has had his struggles on the Braves as well. I’m putting this situation into a committee with Melancon, Greene, Martin, and even our old friend Luke Jackson as guys who could see saves moving forward. It’s hard to say who will both see the next opportunity and not blow it, but the Braves have a few options of similar quality, so whoever gets the hot hand should claim the job but for now it’s anyone’s guess.

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For those few owners with any FAAB left, it looks to be another interesting week of bidding with The Punisher likely getting the top bid. Besides Aristides Aquino, some other players should face a high demand with J.D. Davis and Mike Tauchman on the hitting side and Aaron Sanchez and Aaron Civale on the pitching front. Besides the top adds, check-in on several bullpens to see if there is anyone to add.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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As the Wild Card standings and divisional races take shape, it’s obvious bullpens will play a part in the final outcomes. A wild night in the National League East featured one save conversion, an implosion in New York and a change in who closes in Atlanta. It’s been a rough transition for Shane Greene and Chris Martin since arriving with their new team. Martin allowed two hits, three earned runs and a walk with one strikeout in two-thirds of an inning in Miami. Shane Greene did record his first hold with the Braves but let an inherited runner from Martin score on a single by Starlin Castro in the bottom of the eighth inning. Bouncing back to strikeout Lewis Brinson, Greene left with his team still ahead by four runs. Mark Melancon pitched the ninth giving up a lead-off single to Jorge Alfaro then striking out two before inducing a game ending ground out to shortstop. However, it’s the post-game quotes by manager Brian Snitker which grabs the attention of those still chasing saves: Read the rest of this entry »