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C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Week 8 FAAB Projections

With just the normal closer speculation bids, I’d not be surprised if this week had the lowest percentage of remaining FAAB spent so far this season. With Derek Dietrich as the top prize on the hitting side, I don’t expect owners to be spending much.

The guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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Bullpen Report: May 11, 2019

Since the grind to find saves never ends, one cannot ignore any bullpen in flux. Atlanta could see more evolution within its high leverage situations with Arodys Vizcaino out for the year and A.J. Minter optioned to Triple-A. Yes, they could be in play for Craig Kimbrel eventually, but, the team’s not willing to lose a draft pick to sign him. Luke Jackson bounced back for his third save Friday night firing a clean ninth with two strikeouts. Read the rest of this entry »


The 10: High Performers in the High Minors

This week we’re looking at 10 minor leaguers who are going off in the high minors (AA/AAA). We’ll look at what they’re doing and how it might impact a future call-up.

Yordan Alvarez | OF/1B – HOU

The #7 prospect on the Astros list is going off so far this year, already clubbing 14 homers in just 134 PA. He has a 213 wRC+ while improving both his strikeout (21%) and walk (14%) rates. His obscene 48% HR/FB rate obviously won’t continue, but he is absolutely locked in and knocking on the door of the bigs.

Playing time is tight in Houston, but Tyler White needs to be looking over his shoulder with that 95 wRC+. Alvarez isn’t on the 40-man while Kyle Tucker is, but I can’t see how Alvarez’s performance wouldn’t have him first in line if a spot opens, even with it needing the extra work to get him on the 40-man.

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NL Lineup Analysis (5/10/19)

A path for an Austin Riley promotion, a new role for Jose Peraza and positive developments for Mac Williamson and Ian Kinsler are just some of the lineup developments in the National League in recent days. Here’s the breakdown for each team.

Arizona

Wilmer Flores has been hitting well of late (.410/.452/.641 over his last 12 games), so he has been getting in the lineup more often. He has started six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games and each of the last four, including the last three against right-handed starters. A different player has sat each time to make room for Flores, so as long as he keeps hitting, there is enough flexibility to keep him in the lineup on a close-to-everyday basis.

Torey Lovullo has yet to settle on a spot in the batting order for Ketel Marte against righties. He has been consistently slotted in at the second spot against lefties, but in his last four starts against right-handed pitchers, Marte has hit fifth, leadoff, second and sixth.

Atlanta

As Ender Inciarte has yet to get untracked at the plate, he is starting to lose some playing time. He has gone to the bench for three of the last five games against left-handed starters and for four of the last 12 games overall. For each of those games, Ronald Acuna Jr. has moved to center field with one of Johan Camargo, Matt Joyce or Charlie Culberson taking over in left field. On a related note, Riley started in left field for Triple-A Gwinnett on Wednesday, so with Acuna getting more acclimated in center field, we should wonder if the prospect may eventually supplant Inciarte in the Braves’ lineup.

Chicago

Daniel Descalso has played sparingly over the last six days due to a sore ankle, and Ben Zobrist was placed on the restricted list on Wednesday, so that has meant more playing time for Albert Almora Jr. He has started four of the last six games, including two against right-handed starters. David Bote had already been playing more regularly, but he has now started seven straight games. Addison Russell, who replaced Zobrist on the Cubs’ roster, has now started two of the last three games at second base.

With Descalso and Zobrist out, Jason Heyward led off the last two games against right-handed starters.

Cincinnati

Have we seen the last of Joey Votto, Leadoff Hitter? Nick Senzel has led off for the Reds in the last two games, with Votto batting second against the Athletics on Wednesday and out of the lineup entirely for Thursday’s finale. The outfield situation has stabilized, with Yasiel Puig in right field, Senzel in center field, and an apparent platoon of Jesse Winker and Peraza in left field. The plan at second base is less clear, though a platoon of Derek Dietrich and Kyle Farmer could emerge. Peraza and Josh VanMeter could be in that mix as well.

Colorado

Raimel Tapia has seized something close to an everyday role, starting seven of the Rockies’ last eight games. He has also settled in at the lower part of the batting order, hitting no higher than sixth in 12 of his last 13 starts. Meanwhile, David Dahl and Ian Desmond have had a strict platoon in center field over the last six games, with each player getting three starts on the basis of handedness.

Los Angeles

With A.J. Pollock out, the Dodgers have been going with a platoon of Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez in center field to go along with the Joc Pederson/Chris Taylor platoon in left field. Max Muncy has been playing second base when Hernandez has been in the lineup in center field, which has turned Muncy into an everyday player. In turn, David Freese has been covering first base when Muncy has been playing the keystone.

Miami

Curtis Granderson and Peter O’Brien are sharing time in left field, though handedness does not seem to be a factor in determining which one gets the start. The split between Rosell Herrera and Isaac Galloway in center field looks more like a standard platoon, with Herrera getting the last two starts against righties and Galloway getting the last two starts versus lefties.

Jon Berti is now the regular third baseman, as he has started six of the last eight games and 11 of the last 15. Neil Walker and Martin Prado are now ensconced in a first base platoon, with Walker starting the last four games with an opposing right-handed starter and Prado getting the nod against the last two lefties.

Milwaukee

As expected, the return of Christian Yelich has meant less playing time for both Eric Thames and Ben Gamel. Both players have started in only two of the five games since Yelich missed time with back problems. Craig Counsell has taken advantage of Mike Moustakas‘ surging production, batting him either third or fourth in his last 13 starts against right-handed starters.

New York

Brandon Nimmo may be losing his grip on an everyday role, as he has been left out of the Mets’ starting lineup in two of the last five games. Once was against a lefty starter (Gio Gonzalez), but the other time was against righty Chris Paddack. Todd Frazier and J.D. Davis have been platooning at third base, and with Jed Lowrie (knee) possibly returning next week, Frazier could see a reduction in his playing time. Mickey Callaway did not specify a plan for getting Lowrie into the lineup, only saying that some regulars may not play as much. With Frazier batting .143, he would seem to be the most likely player to be impacted.

The suddenly-hot Amed Rosario (15 for his last 45 with five extra-base hits) has batted second in three of the last four games. Peter Alonso has hit in the cleanup spot in each of those three games.

Philadelphia

All of the regulars are back, so we are back to seeing the same Phillies lineup, day in and day out.

Pittsburgh

The easing-in process for Gregory Polanco appears to be over, as he has now started five games in a row. Also, Bryan Reynolds‘ run of semi-regular playing time looks like it’s over, as Melky Cabrera has three of the last four starts in left field.

San Diego

For the Padres’ eight games played in May, Kinsler has hit leadoff for six of them. He has rewarded Andy Green for the decision by going 9 for 30 with two home runs and two doubles this month. Now Manuel Margot looks like the odd man out of the Padres’ outfield, having started only two of the last six games.

San Francisco

After getting four straight starts in left field, Mike Gerber was abruptly pushed aside with Williamson’s promotion from Triple-A Sacramento on Tuesday. Williamson started on both Tuesday and Thursday at Colorado, and the team will be looking to him to play left field on a regular basis. The Giants also placed Buster Posey on the 7-day concussion IL on Thursday, so Aramis Garcia and Stephen Vogt will split the catching duties in his absence. It may be worth noting that when Vogt started on Monday against the Reds, he batted third.

The rest of the lineup is stable, though with Yangervis Solarte designated for assignment on Tuesday, Donovan Solano has likely inherited his portion of the second base platoon with Joe Panik.

St. Louis

Harrison Bader has been relegated to a bench role once again. Dexter Fowler has now made five of the last six starts in center field.

Washington

Juan Soto (back) is expected to return on Saturday, so the recent run of starts by Michael A. Taylor is about to end. With the demotion of Carter Kieboom, Wilmer Difo is back to getting regular play at shortstop, though Trea Turner (finger) could be back as soon as two weeks from now.

With both Matt Adams (shoulder) and Ryan Zimmerman (plantar fasciitis) out, Howie Kendrick figures to play close to regularly at first base. He has started three of the last five games there. Kendrick has also been hitting regularly in the heart of the order, batting third or fourth in each of his last 13 starts.


AL Lineup Analysis

Angels

Astros

  • The kings of set-and-forget keep chugging along.

Athletics

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 685 – Fireside Chat: Assessing Darvish & Musgrove

5/10/19

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Fireside Chat

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Waiver Wire Week 7: 10 SP Targets

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 20% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy Pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Note: This week and moving forward, I’m going to focus more on the sub 20% and sub 10% owned arms as I expect many of the sub 30% arms are snatched up in your leagues.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, ordered by ownage %:

Under 20% owned

Wade Miley (Houston Astros) – This list is barren compared to previous weeks, due to our favorite choices impressing and a larger emphasis on pitching needs due to a multitude of injuries. That makes someone like Miley a considerable option as he offers a strong chance at a Win whenever he takes the hill. The Houston offense will support him and his ability to induce weak outs often can push him into the sixth frame. Don’t invest for strikeouts, but if a 1.25 WHIP, 3.70 ERA, and a handful of Wins fits, Miley is your guy.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 10th, 2019

The transcript is below!

12:24

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, have to run a tight 30 minutes today because of the podcast schedule, but let’s talk some baseball!

12:26

Jeff: Paul – I read Nick’s take on Musgrove’s awful night last night. How do you feel about some recent poor starts?

12:26

Paul Sporer: It’s funny this is the first Q… today’s fireside is about Musgrove (& Darvish)

12:26

RK: Will Detroit call up Casey Mize anytime soon?

12:27

Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe in the summer, but not this month or anything, IMO

12:27

CT: Hey Paul, thanks as always for everything. A seemingly easy question, but kinda confounding at the same time — pick two for next week: Strasburg @ Cubs, Castillo @ Cubs, or Montas @ Tigers

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The Stash List – Great Performances Edition

Hey y’ all! Can you believe there as already been one month of minor league baseball?  We’ve had some great stories so far.  Luis Robert killing A+ and then getting the promotion to AA.  Casey Mize throwing a no-hitter in his first start in AA. What has been your favorite story so far?

This week’s Stash List has two hitters in killing it in AAA who may get a promotion to the majors this year, one pitcher recently promoted to AA throwing absolute fireballs while limiting walks, and a college bat performing well in A+.

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Prospect Stock Watch: Kevin Smith

Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we’re going to take a look at a struggling prospect who entered 2019 with some hype: shortstop Kevin Smith of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Smith landed on a number of pre-season Top 100 lists, although I was not one of the people on the bandwagon. With that said, I listed him as “The Riser” in the Jays system prior to 2019 based on the hype he was generating but offered these words of caution when discussing his mid-season promotion from Low-A to High-A ball in 2018:

“He then received a promotion to High-A ball around mid-season and continued to produce over-the-fence power but his approach at the plate de-evolved to more of his pre-2018 style. The walks dried up and the strikeouts rose… Smith’s prospect value is up but I’m hoping to see more of the early-2018 Smith rather than the later-2018 Smith.”

Unfortunately, we’re once again seeing more of the later-2018 Smith’s production at the Double-A level. I was surprised to see him start 2019 in Double-A but the Jays were stuck after Logan Warmoth (another shortstop who was drafted in the first round of the same draft as Smith) was terrible for all of 2018 at High-A ball and was forced to repeat the level. That pushed Smith up by default.

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