Today, let’s move over to review early starting pitcher metrics and whether the surges or declines stuck around over the rest of the season. Unlike for hitters where depending on the type of hitter they are, the optimal batted ball profile is easier to determine, it’s not as straightforward for pitchers. So this isn’t necessarily a “good” list to be on, but it could change the shape of the pitcher’s performance. More grounders should result in fewer homers, but likely more hits allowed and a higher BABIP. So let’s get to the names of those that had increased their GB% by at least 10% through Apr 19 and see whether their GB% spikes were sustained.
Read the rest of this entry »
General
• Charlie Morton talks about how rehabbing players won’t have access to team training facilities if a lockout happens.
Yeah, I don’t think many people have given much thought to how a lockout could affect things like injury rehab. Folks think mostly in terms of starting spring training and the season on time. But yeah, for guys rehabbing, it could be a pretty significant thing for them. Yeah, because their life as a professional doesn’t stop. I mean, you go from working out at the team facility — I mean, Acuña and Soroka, those guys are working out at the stadium and rehabbing with our PTs — and then you’re on your own. Which I’m sure is probably pretty unsettling, especially if you have, like, franchise-caliber players involved.
Yeah, I don’t think many people have given much thought to how a lockout could affect things like injury rehab. Folks think mostly in terms of starting spring training and the season on time. But yeah, for guys rehabbing, it could be a pretty significant thing for them.
Yeah, because their life as a professional doesn’t stop. I mean, you go from working out at the team facility — I mean, Acuña and Soroka, those guys are working out at the stadium and rehabbing with our PTs — and then you’re on your own. Which I’m sure is probably pretty unsettling, especially if you have, like, franchise-caliber players involved.
It’s tough to know if this situation should move back any player return timelines, but it’s something to consider going forward. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I reviewed the hitters who had raised their FB% marks by at least 10% through Apr 17 versus 2020. Let’s now switch gears to reviewing those hitters who saw their FB% marks decline by at least 10% through Apr 18. Did these early FB% declines suggest a down power year? Let’s find out.
90-72 (2nd in Division; 9th in MLB)
[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]
SP Wins: 54 (9th)
RP Wins: 36 (13th)
Saves: 50 (4th)
1+ Save: 7 (Alex Reyes 29, Giovanny Gallegos 14, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Luis García 2, Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현, Ryan Helsley, Justin Miller 1)
100+ Ks: 1 (Adam Wainwright 174)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5 (Paul Goldschmidt .294, Tyler O’Neill .286, Edmundo Sosa .271, Harrison Bader .267, Dylan Carlson .266)
65+ Runs: 5 (Goldschmidt 102, Tommy Edman 91, O’Neill 89, Nolan Arenado 81, Carlson 79)
65+ RBI: 5 (Arenado 105, Goldschmidt 99, O’Neill 80, Yadier Molina 66, Carlson 65)
10+ HRs: 8 (Arenado, O’Neill 34, Goldschmidt 31, Paul DeJong 19, Carlson 18, Bader 16, Molina, Edman 11)
5+ SBs: 4 (Edman 30, O’Neill 15, Goldschmidt 12, Bader 9)
BEST BUY: Tommy Edman
Edman’s primary value comes from his speed as he was 30-for-35 on the bases last year. He also chipped in 91 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, and a .262 AVG, but he is drafted for the SBs and positional flexibility (he’ll be 2B/OF to start 2022). Only 15 guys are projected for 20+ SBs next year according to Steamer and from that group, only Myles Straw (142) and Akil Baddoo (168) are available cheaper than Edman (84). With his contact and speed, Edman is a nice BABIP away from chasing down a .300 AVG, too.
As baseball history keeps telling us, a pitcher’s ultimate success often starts with the heater, providing a base of core strength for their pitch-mix body on which the glamor muscles of the breaking stuff can better be supported.
With that in mind, let’s look at the best fastballs from starters in 2022 according to Run-Value (per 100 pitches) before looking at three possible draft-day bargains. While Run Value is by no means the end-all measurement of overall quality, (nor necessarily predictive), it does give us a solid snapshot of the overall results that a pitch returned while sending up flares for where further investigation might be warranted.
Below are all of the fastballs (min n = 300) in 2021 that finished with less than or equal to a -1.0 RV/100. Also included are xwOBA, xwOBA (on contact), Groundball%, CSW% (called strikes + swinging strikes), Swinging-Strike%, and Whiff%. As a quick refresher, SwStr% is the number of whiffs divided by the number of pitches thrown (individual pitch, not total), while Whiff% is the number of whiffs divided by the number of swings. Whiff% tells you one important result (I got a whiff!), but SwStr% gives you two (I induced a swing and a whiff!). Both can be useful but are saying different things.
Ranger Suárez, PHI, (152 ADP, SP 46)
Sinker, -3.0 RV/100 (1st by pitch), Four-Seamer, -2.3 RV/100 (1st by pitch)
It doesn’t answer every question about whether or not Ranger Suárez will continue his dominant transition to starting but having two premium fastballs is a nice base to bet on. As is a 1.51 ERA (2.35 FIP) over 12 starts and 65.2 IP in 2021 after Suárez spent May-July in the bullpen, posting a 1.12 ERA (3.32 FIP) over 40.1 IP.
He had two pitches make our leaderboard but it was the sinker that became the workhouse of his 2021 breakout – and the leader in our RV/100 clubhouse – using it to induce a 66.7% GB% (seventh-highest rate among qualified starters), while locking up righties on the inside.
Just ask J.D.
Suárez had just 67.2 IP in the majors prior to last season (and only 4 IP in 2020) but the change in his pitch mix is clear:
Along with the elite groundball rate, Suárez’s sinker had just a .244 xwOBA against it (second-lowest) and also got more swings and misses in the second half (a majority of which was as a starter), going from a 5.7 SwStr% and 13.7 Whiff% to a 10.1% SwStr% and 21.4% Whiff%.
While you’re not necessarily looking for them, getting a little extra whiff gravy with your sinker is always nice:
How his sinker and four-seamer play off of each is a seam-shifted discussion for another day but I believe heavily in them as a strong base and love how they work with Suárez’s overall pitch mix. While there is some worry in projecting 160+ IP for someone who has a max of 106 IP, his groundball weapons (and the low-stress innings that hopefully come with them) make me more confident.
At his current draft price, Suárez could end up being one of 2022’s best bargains.
Luis Garcia, HOU (157 ADP, SP 48)
Cutter, -2.0 RV/100 (2nd by pitch)
After just throwing twenty of them in 2020, Garcia’s cutter arrived in 2021, with only Aaron Civale’s returning a better RV/100. But the .223 wOBA against it was first among qualified starters, as was a .230 xwOBA. And while its 42.7 GB% wasn’t impressive, things were much better in the second half, rising from a 33.3% GB% to a 50.0% GB%.
The increased groundballs were nice but what makes Garcia’s cutter really shine is its primetime whiffery. It’s 23.4% SwStr% was not just first in the majors, it was nearly seven points better than the 16.8% SwStr% put up by Corbin Burnes’ in second place.
When it came to finishing batters off, Garcia’s cutter lived down and to his glove-side. Of his 167 K last season, 60 batters were finished off by whiffing at a cutter – and 43 of those came in the zone 14.
For further illustration, I recommend the modern retelling of Mr. Wendal; a tale of flail, told in three parts.
Here, have a cutter, Mr. Wendle:
In fact, no brotherman here, have two:
Actually, have three. Because Mr. Wendle’s soul was so wrecked by cutters in his first two at-bats, that he was willing to offer at this one in his third – and wasn’t very pleased with himself:
We could guess at what he’s muttering at the end but this is a family-friendly website.
The slipperiness of Garcia’s cutter illustrated above isn’t much of a mystery given its movement on the horizontal plane, breaking 5.7 inches in 2021 and giving him 2.6 more inches of break compared to cutters thrown at a similar velocity/extension – or 84% above average.
That kind of break pairs nicely with a four-seamer that gets premium rise, as well as a changeup that also gets above-average break and a slider that gets elite movement on both planes. If you’re counting along at home, that’s four pitches with excellent (and complimentary) movement profiles on a team that excels at maximizing pitch mixes. Hopefully, the Astros can help get it dialed in against left-handers, against whom Garcia had a 4.55 FIP and allowed a .353 wOBA in 2021, compared to a 2.81 FIP and .241 wOBA vs RHH.
But knowing what we know about how nasty his cutter has gotten, the movement profiles of his other pitches seem like they could be very complimentary in better neutralizing lefties and give Garcia a better chance to keep turning the lineup over.
Garcia is developing a nasty out-pitch and should again be backed by an excellent bullpen and offense, which should put him in line for plenty of wins – especially if a continued ascension of the cutter helps get him deeper in his starts. And after 155 IP in 2021, there shouldn’t be many restrictions on the soon-to-be 25-year-old right-hander.
Given all the goodies, a post-150 ADP sounds delicious.
Drew Rasmussen, TB (247 ADP, SP 73)
Four-seamer, -1.8 RV/100 (sixth by pitch)
Acquired from the Brewers as part of the Wily Adames trade, Rasmussen only pitched 75 IP in 2021, 50 IP of which came in the second half, with his four-seamer over that time returning a -2.7 RV/100 that was second only to Ranger Suárez. Averaging 97.1 mph and 2437 rpm (14th-highest), while getting 9% more vertical movement to similar fastballs, the heater burned bright in 2021.
Please rise:
It’s easy to see why the Rays were intrigued by Rasmussen’s stuff, as the high-velocity, high-spin heater is made even more effective by being paired with a slider that also gets serious movement on the vertical plane:
It might be easy to trust Rasmussen’s stuff but his role certainly can’t be, given the Rays track record of unpredictability. He’s currently penciled into the starting rotation (and projected for 151 IP by Steamer) but how his final usage shakes out is not guaranteed. However, I believe in the talent and his draft price (at least, for now) makes it so it won’t cost a lot to find out how real it is.
Everyone else can take the Shanes by the Bay around 150 picks earlier, I’d rather take a chance on the discount their less-heralded teammate comes with.
For this exercise, we will be looking at starting pitchers and their NFBC ADP as of 11/29/21. It’s always interesting to see how the crowd thinks, who they seem to value, and how fantasy managers are shaping their drafts. For instance, how many pitchers are going in the first round? How many fantasy managers are grabbing two starting pitchers in the first three rounds? A lot to unpack and a lot of different aspects to analyze. We will go by round and after each round, we will discuss briefly what we are seeing! To note: this is based on Draft Champions which is a 15 team format with about 14 completed drafts.
Why do we care about a batter’s fly ball rate? Because all else being equal, a higher fly ball rate will result in more homers, so paying attention to a hitter’s batted ball profile is important. Typically, analysis centers around a hitter’s raw home run total and whether it’s higher or lower than expected at any point during the season. Sometimes, we see HR/FB rate thrown in as well to assess how real the home run surge or collapse might be. But fly ball rate, or FB%, is just as important, as it’s one of the three drivers of home runs, along with strikeout rate and the aforementioned HR/FB rate. Read the rest of this entry »
2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the outfield position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.
You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/ Read the rest of this entry »
90-72 (2nd in Division; 11th in MLB)
SP Wins: 45 (13th)
RP Wins: 45 (4th)
Saves: 51 (3rd)
1+ Save: 8 (Drew Steckenrider 14, Paul Sewald 11, Kendall Graveman 10, Rafael Montero 7, Keynan Middleton 4, Yohan Ramirez, Diego Castillo 2, Erik Swanson 1)
100+ Ks: 5 (Yusei Kikuchi 163, Logan Gilbert 128, Chris Flexen 플렉센 125, Marco Gonzales 108, Sewald 104)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Ty France .291, J.P. Crawford .273)
65+ Runs: 4 (Mitch Haniger 110, Crawford 89, France 85, Kyle Seager 73)
65+ RBI: 3 (Seager 101, Haniger 100, France 73)
10+ HRs: 7 (Haniger 39, Seager 35, France 18, Luis Torrens 15, Jarred Kelenic 14, Dylan Moore 12, Tom Murphy 11)
5+ SBs: 5 (Moore 21, Jake Fraley 10, Kelenic, Jake Bauers 6, Sam Haggerty 5)
BEST BUY: Mitch Haniger
Injuries cost Haniger 99 games in 2019 and all of 2020. Once healthy, he picked up where he left off as a premium power source. His power metrics are strong and he has decent plate skills so if he can remain healthy, he’s a 30-90 lock. A couple of his biggest injuries have been fluky so I don’t think he has exceptionally higher injury risk with 157 games played in two of his last three seasons (63 in ’19, 0 in ’20). He goes just outside the Top 100, a fair price for such a capable power bat.
2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the outfield position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. Read the rest of this entry »