• Roto Riteup
    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
  • Bullpen Report
    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
  • MASH Report
    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Paul Sporer, Justin Mason, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
  • Daily Fantasy Strategy
    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
  • Ottoneu Strategy
    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Building a 2021 $14 NFBC Offense, A Review

One of the more enjoyable exercises I performed before this season was building a $14 NFBC offense, using the contests’ average auction values. The idea was to choose from the 59 hitters that averaged $1 in cost and put together an entire legal offense, filling each required slot. Let’s see how this squad performed, with final FanGraphs calculated auction values included.

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2021 Roster Review: Washington Nationals

65-97 (5th in Division; 25th in MLB)

[Previous Reviews]

SP Wins: 42 (17th)

RP Wins: 23 (2nd)

Saves: 36 (22nd)

1+ Save: 4 (Brad Hand 21, Kyle Finnegan 11, Tanner Rainey 3, Paolo Espino 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Max Scherzer 147, Patrick Corbin 143, Erick Fedde 128, Joe Ross 109)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5ish (Trea Turner .322, Juan Soto 313, Josh Harrison .294, Alcides Escobar .288 – in 349 PA, Josh Bell .261)

65+ Runs: 3 (Soto 111, Bell 75, Turner 66)

65+ RBI: 2 (Soto 95, Bell 88)

10+ HRs: 5 (Soto 29, Bell 27, Kyle Schwarber 25, Turner 18, Ryan Zimmerman 14)

5+ SBs: 4 (Turner 21, Soto 9, Victor Robles 8, Harrison 5)

BEST BUY: Lane Thomas

Thomas had a fantastic third of a season after being traded for Jon Lester. He posted a 127 wRC+ with 7 HR and 4 SB in 206 PA and should be in line for a full-time role with the Nationals in 2022. He is 26 with a collection of league average or better skills at the dish as well as plus speed and plus defense in the corners annnd a great opportunity at playing time. Soto is the only locked in outfielder for the Nats heading into 2022.Thomas is a bit platoon heavy favoring his work against lefties, but if he can maintain some at or better than the .715 OPS he had versus righties with Washington, then he can avoid a short-side platoon.

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Projection Accuracy: Early March Plate Appearances

I’ve always wanted to do a projection analysis, especially at different time points. I had it started in 2020 and everything fell apart with the shortened season. I’m starting off simply today by looking at at-bat projections from March 1st with the Wisdom of the Crowds prevailing.

The reason I chose March 1st was that The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) started drafted that day. I pulled all 14 projections that morning. I contacted the paid providers and all but one agreed to have their name associated with the results. They are:

Projections

  • Steamer (FanGraphs)
  • ZIPS
  • DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
  • The Bat
  • The Bat X
  • Davenport
  • ATC (FanGraphs)
  • Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
  • Masterball (Todd Zola)
  • PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
  • RotoWire
  • CBS
  • Razzball (Steamer)
  • Paywall #1

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Live Episode from First Pitch Arizona 2021

The Live Episode from First Pitch Arizona 2021 of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek Carty

What’s new in THE BAT X for 2022?

Strategy Section

  • Risk
    • How to deal with injury risk
    • How to discount for binary risk
    • Low risk players / consistent players
      • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
    • Categorical Risk
    • Replacement Level Risk
    • Ace Pitcher Risk – Should you draft pitchers in the first few rounds?
    • Stacking Risk – Doubling up in one league vs. spreading out in two different leagues
  • Auction
    • Spread the Risk vs. Stars & Scrubs
      • League depth matters
      • Grab value in every price tier
    • The value at the corner infield position
    • The Joey Votto nomination strategy

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2021 Forecast — Potential HR/FB Rate Decliners, A Review

Yesterday, I reviewed the eight hitters on my 2021 potential HR/FB rate surger list. Today, let’s once again rely on my xHR/FB rate equation to review my preseason potential HR/FB rate decliners list.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 985 – Live from First Pitch Arizona!!

10/18/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

TAKEAWAYS

DRAFT DAY

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Peripheral Prospects of 2019, but for 2021: A Review

Back in 2019, Brad Johnson and I co-authored a weekly series called “Peripheral Prospects” that was extremely fun to write and (in my opinion) dropped some genuinely good nuggets on unloved fringe- and non-prospects. Because many of the players featured throughout the series did not debut in 2019 or even in 2020, I wanted to publish a post dedicated to keeping an eye on some of those circa-2019 peripheral prospects this past season.

That’s pretty much it. In the coming weeks, I’ll post lists of my favorite peripheral prospect hitters and pitchers for the 2021 season. Until then, let’s review how some of my favorite peripheral prospects from 2019 performed in 2021.

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2021 Forecast — Potential HR/FB Rate Surgers, A Review

Today, I continue reviewing my 2021 preseason predictions by moving onto my list of potential HR/FB rate surgers. I used my xHR/FB rate to identify and discuss a handful of names that posted actual HR/FB rates well below what my equation calculated as a deserved mark. Since 2020 was a short season, there were a lot more significant gaps between xHR/FB rate and actual HR/FB rate, so there should have been less reliance on both marks given that we had smaller sample sizes to work with.

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Ottoneu League Best Practices

As we finish a brief lull in the Ottoneu world – those 2.5 weeks after the end of the regular season and before the start of arbitration – we have a moment to take stock of what works and what doesn’t in our leagues, and think about how we can manage them better. On the Ottoneu community site, a manager asked about a “best practices” document (this was in relation to an Ottoneu basketball draft) and it seemed like now is an ideal time to talk about best practices, for both new leagues being spun up for 2022 and existing leagues that might want to align on some key stuff.

With that in mind, I spoke to a handful of Ottoneu veterans – players who have been in a bunch of leagues, been commissioners of a bunch of leagues, and know the game well. Here are 10 of the best practices they recommended.
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2021 Roster Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

61-101 (5th in Division; 27th in MLB)

[Previous Reviews]

SP Wins: 28 (29th)

RP Wins: 33 (17th)

Saves: 25 (29th)

1+ Save: 3 (Richard Rodríguez 14, Chris Stratton 8, David Bednar 3)

100+ Ks: 2 (JT Brubaker 129, Wil Crowe 111)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Adam Frazier .324 [w/PIT; he hit .305 altogether], Bryan Reynolds .302)

65+ Runs: 1 (Reynolds 93)

65+ RBI: 1 (Reynolds 90)

10+ HRs: 3 (Reynolds 24, Gregory Polanco 11, Colin Moran 10)

5+ SBs: 1 (Polanco 14)

BEST BUY: Bryan Reynolds

Nothing sneaky here, their best player is their best buy. His rough 2020 proved to be a small sample fluke and his 2021 (142 wRC+) picked up right where his 2019 breakout (130 wRC+) left off. He went 90/90 R/RBI on the Pirates for crying out loud! He has great plate skills, a high AVG floor, and above average power.

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