Toward the end of last February, about a month before many of us went into lockdown and the season was delayed indefinitely, I compared my home run Pod Projections to Steamer. I didn’t want playing time differences to influence the list, so rather than straight home run forecasts, I calculated the respective AB/HR rates and compared those. Then for fun, I calculated what a 600 at-bat home run projection would look like at each of the projections’ AB/HR marks. Let’s begin by reviewing the upside guys, with a caveat that some of my projections may have changed slightly since publishing, and, of course, the small sample size of the season means we’re both likely going to end up being very wrong on a lot of these names.
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1/24/21
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Hate is a strong term, but I already broke the ice last season with “Does Mike Matheny Hate Stolen Bases?”. I’m here to put some facts behind any narratives about Tony La Russa’s stolen base philosophy now that he’s the White Sox manager. The Sox have three (Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, and Tim Anderson) of the 28 players projected for 17 or more steals this season, so La Russa’s philosophy could have a major impact. With stolen bases becoming scarcer, the following is a stab to determine the White Sox’s baserunning plan.
First, I needed to find an ideal time frame since La Russa started managing in 1979. The game has changed over those years, so I used the last ten seasons (2002 to 2011) of him managing the Cardinals. I would have liked to use a smaller date range, but the resulting player sample was too small. Read the rest of this entry »
With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »
The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Derek Carty
Strategy Section
ATC Projections
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1/21/21
NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS
Free Agents
• Yadier Molina and …
Molina, 38, has made clear his preference to return to the Cardinals, and the Cards have expressed their interest in re-signing him. He’s seeking a two-year contract, but in a recent interview with Cardinals broadcaster Polo Ascencio for La Vida Baseball, Molina acknowledged that if an appealing offer isn’t there, he’ll consider retirement. “I’m preparing hard. When God says — if He wants, if it’s His will that I can come back, I’ll come back,” Molina said in Spanish. “And if not, I’ll retire happy and with my head held high.”
Molina, 38, has made clear his preference to return to the Cardinals, and the Cards have expressed their interest in re-signing him. He’s seeking a two-year contract, but in a recent interview with Cardinals broadcaster Polo Ascencio for La Vida Baseball, Molina acknowledged that if an appealing offer isn’t there, he’ll consider retirement.
“I’m preparing hard. When God says — if He wants, if it’s His will that I can come back, I’ll come back,” Molina said in Spanish. “And if not, I’ll retire happy and with my head held high.”
… Masahiro Tanaka might not sign with an MLB team.
Per SNY TV’s Andy Martino, “there continues to be informed speculation in the industry” that Tanaka will return to his home country of Japan to continue his professional career. Tanaka, who has spent all seven seasons of his MLB career with the New York Yankees, appeared on a radio show in Japan last week and said there was a “not zero” chance that he would return to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, where he played before joining MLB in 2013 (h/t Mike Rosenstein of NJ.com).
Per SNY TV’s Andy Martino, “there continues to be informed speculation in the industry” that Tanaka will return to his home country of Japan to continue his professional career.
Tanaka, who has spent all seven seasons of his MLB career with the New York Yankees, appeared on a radio show in Japan last week and said there was a “not zero” chance that he would return to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, where he played before joining MLB in 2013 (h/t Mike Rosenstein of NJ.com).
Fantasy managers just need to understand that one or both might be a big zero in 2021 and plan accordingly in leagues with no waiver wire. Read the rest of this entry »
On Tuesday, it was reported that George Springer agreed to sign with the Blue Jays, finally marking the first big free agent signing of the offseason. Springer has spent his entire career in Houston, where has surprisingly posted a lower wOBA than in away parks. Let’s check out the park factors to see if the change in home park might affect his results.
With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.
Transcript is now available!
Paul Sporer: OK sorry about that, had some technical issues, think we’re good to go
Greg: What do you think about Dustin May this year? Is he locked into a rotation spot?
Paul Sporer: He’s got one right now, but normal Dodger shenanigans plus the short 2-mo. season tells me he won’t necessarily get 30+ starts. I’d tab him closer to 23-25.
Ryan: Are you on the Zac Plesac hype train?
Paul Sporer: I feel pretty good about him. I wrote some things about him here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2020-fastball-usage-decliners/ I’m not sure I’m going top 20 all the time, but I’m not too far off
Nick Burkett: I love all the SP’s the Marlins are rolling out, tell me I’m crazy.